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01-JANUARY 18-2023

Surprise PartyGood morning.
It’s pretty clear that investors were focused entirely on actions from the Federal Reserve last year.  The central bank’s announcement to raise interest rates and sharp follow-through led to a big change for the worse for how nearly all assets were valued.
But the Fed’s moves over the past year may become moot.  That’s because fiscal policy is the other half of the equation.  And we’re on track for another debt ceiling debacle.  The situation could be similar to the 2012 debt limit brinksmanship that led to a partial government shutdown and a market meltdown.  Or it could lead to a massively higher debt ceiling, which clears the way for more government spending – which is inflationary and at odds with the Fed’s moves.
Either way, it’s clear that we’re facing some rising short-term uncertainty, which may create a few opportunities on the short side in the coming weeks.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

New Survey Shows Global Optimism Is Plummeting
The latest annual survey from global communications firm Edelman found people’s hopes for their financial futures suffered a “massive collapse” worldwide over the past year, with most developed nations seeing economic optimism hit all-time lows… [Read Here]

Economists Predict A 61% Chance THIS Will Happen In 2023
Despite many signs pointing in the right direction – like inflation receding, continued consumer spending, and dropping rates of unemployment – experts warn that a recession is still likely… [Read Here]

January 18, 2022

Get a real jobGood morning.
While US markets were closed on Monday, the global stock market moved higher amid news that China was cutting its interest rates.  Most of the world has been staring down the prospect of a tightening monetary cycle this year, and China’s easing can do much to potentially improve global supply chains and keep a floor under commodity prices.
The downside?  Central banks tend to ease when the economic picture looks dour.  China’s recent GDP growth came in at 8.1 percent for 2021, a huge improvement, but also a lower one than the county had expected.  Now markets will have to factor in the tug-of-war between tightening monetary policy in some countries, and a looser one in others.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The Fed Just Guaranteed a Stagflation Crisis in 2022 – Here’s How
I don’t think I can overstate the danger that the economy is in right now as we enter 2022.  A real threat looms in the form of a stagflationary tidal wave… [Read Here]

January 18, 2021

This Is GreatGood morning.
Joe Biden didn’t offer too many surprises when he listed his economic proposals.  He did, however, suggest raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour.  At the Federal level, the minimum is $7.25, so if passed, the rate would more than double.  (States are free to set their own higher minimum wage.)
That’s good news — for companies working on automation.  And for anyone who prefers self-checkout at stores rather than having to interact with a cashier.  However, higher wages will hurt smaller mom and pop stores (at least the ones that survived the lockdowns), which rely on low-wage labor and can’t afford to invest in automation.  For large corporations, an investment in automation and robotics will offset the remaining employees that have to pay a higher wage.  So it’s good news for the stock market, but it’s best for tech names that can profit from removing a human being from the equation as much as possible.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The Fed Changed Its Approach to Inflation, Will It Change Its Policies? –Joshua R Hendrickson, National Review
With average inflation targeting, there is no explicit long-run target, but rather a vague promise to correct for past mistakes.  This raises a couple of questions… [Read Here] Since the beginning of the pandemic, blue states have suffered disproportionate economic pain … will the red states soon follow?
Inflation and long-term bond yields are rising in concert with massive debt.  Here’s why a tiny uptick could be the beginning of a disaster for the dollar, wreck the bond markets, and end the dollar’s reign as the global reserve currency.

Gold $1,830.13 (-1.2%)
Silver $24.88 (-2.6%)
Platinum $1,079.45 (+0.6%)

Palladium $2,422.25 (+0.6%)

January 18, 2020

Why do grocery stores give out food samples?  Why do television producers break for commercial ‘just before’ they reveal a key to solving the crime?  Simple answer: “It Works!”

According to, the Zeigarnik effect states that people remember uncompleted or interrupted tasks better than completed ones.  How do we apply this in persuasion and sales?

Food BusinessKeep them hanging in suspense that they will not stop until they know the ending.  TV and radio programs use this often to make the viewer stay tuned to the next episode.  Copy-writers are also doing this to make people continue reading until the very end.  They use words such as:

  • “In a few moments, I’ll show you the right way to meet Mr. Right.”
  • “In due time, I’ll reveal the answer to this mysterious puzzle.
  • “Soon, the truth will be revealed!”
  • “Ultimately, your prayers will be answered.”

These words will make your prospects “stick” with you until they’ve found the information or thing you’ve been keeping from them.  If you’re selling an information product, you can use this effectively by giving them a sample excerpt that ends in such a way that they will want more details from you so badly, they’ll have to buy your product to satisfy their urge or curiosity.

The power of the Zeigarnik effect comes from the desire of people to finish what has already been started.  Let’s say you’re a sales manager and you’re giving a $500 bonus incentive to anyone on your sales team who could sell at least 50 units per month.  To apply the Zeigarnik effect, you could give them credit for 10 sales at the start of the month, so all they have to sell are 40 more units to get the bonus incentive.  This motivational push will give them the momentum to “continue” the process.  And the closer they are to reaching 50 units, the more inspired they are to attain that goal.

Leaving the prospect hanging and hungry for more … is another great way to increase your sales, yes!  But more importantly … it should be easier to truly help people!  😉

January 18, 2019

Day #12 of our 14 Day Challenge… Marie Forleo’s quote for the day!

“Sometimes, the best way to grow is to cut back.”

Lots of things to do today, and to play Bridge was not my first choice.

Roses ‘came to mind’ not snow!  In general, you’ll be pruning rose bushes just before the plant breaks dormancy after spring’s final frost.  This will be early in the year in warm climates, and anytime between Jan – Apr in cold climates.  If it’s older roses you’re tending, prune them after blooming; as they bear flowers on the last year’s wood.

So many thing are said, to caution, warn, or humor us around roses, rose-gardens, and the handling of the thorns and the love there delivery promises.  🙂

January 18, 2018


January 18, 2017

Balancing The Odds

When you change the way you look at things … the things you look at often change.

Currencies not backed by anything tangible, like gold or silver, have always left debt and destruction in their wakes.


Come From Aways, Do You?

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