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03-MARCH 09-2023

SubwayGood morning.
Financial markets have bumped up their bets for a 50-basis point increase the next time the Federal Reserve meets later this month.  About half of traders expect the move, up from 30 percent before Chairman Jerome Powell suggested on Tuesday that the central bank would need to act more aggressively.
Right now, interest rates stand at a 4.5 to 4.75 percent range.  That’s still under the most recent read of 6.4 percent inflation – which suggests that economic conditions still aren’t tight enough.  Until short-term rates are over the rate of inflation, there’s likely more rate hikes ahead – no matter how quickly they move higher.
Investors and traders alike are getting a yellow flag to watch out on trading on the long side right now.  It may be better to target some short-term downside opportunities in the face of a faster pace of rate hikes.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

We Are All Counterfeiters Now
If there is one central myth supporting the folly that passes for monetary policy and by extension fiscal policy, it would have to be the unchallenged assumption that money should be defined and controlled by… [Read Here]

Core CPI Looks Explosive Yet Again
More trouble brewing beneath the surface for inflation.  Used vehicle wholesale prices at auction jumped 4.3% in February from January, seasonally adjusted, the biggest month-to-month jump for any February since… [Read Here]

March 09, 2022

Life InsuranceGood morning.
With companies cutting back on buying Russian oil and gas output, and with domestic policies such as suspending drilling on federal land still in place, it’s clear that oil prices have a lot higher to go.  The record price for oil in the US is about $148 per barrel, set back in 2008 right before the economy started to unwind.
As many have started pointing out, today’s gas prices are only the highest before being adjusted for inflation.  Given that a broader geopolitical flareup could still be on the table, it’s not unreasonable to see oil prices move as high as $300 per barrel.  That was the assessment of one Russian energy executive when looking at the massive cutback in Russian oil buying now.
For investors and traders alike, that kind of move higher could lead to a recession.  It points to further upside in commodities, but after that, a potential falling out as the world economy slows.  Expect some big swings in the space, and continue to keep defensive in today’s markets, even if they show an oversold rally in the next few sessions.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Gas Prices Do Something That Was Unthinkable Only One Day Ago
After rising dramatically following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the price of gas has reached a new record, topping an all-time high that stood for nearly 14 years.  As of Tuesday morning, the average national price… [Read Here]

Will Sanctioning Russia Destroy The Monetary System?
By preventing Russia’s central bank from accessing the country’s foreign-exchange reserves, the West has effectively seized Vladimir Putin’s war chest.  And even in the face of this awesome display of Western power… [Read Here]

March 09, 2021

First-Day-BackGood morning.
For a few weeks, the stock market seemed concerned with rising interest rates on bonds.  In particular, the 10-year Treasury seemed like it would hit 1.5 percent and havoc would unleash.
1.5 percent was hit.  And now yields are closer to 1.6 percent.  That’s still not a huge return for giving Uncle Sam your money for 10 years. In fact, with inflation expectations still at or over 2 percent, it seems like a guaranteed loss.  Yet outside of tech stocks, the market doesn’t seem to fazed… as though the market is starting to rotate out of high-flying tech and into relative under-performers in the value space right now.

Are value stocks a better buy here, or do tech companies look like the better play following their steep drop?

Hit reply and let us know your thoughts.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Stagflation Subterfuge: The Real Disaster Hidden by the Pandemic 
Brandon Smith of Alt-Market.us argues the Federal Reserve intends to destroy the American economy, using the pandemic as an excuse to advance a shadowy globalist agenda… [Read Here]

March 09, 2020

Touchy FeelyGood morning.
Have you ever heard the expression, “between a rock and a hard place”?  That’s what the market is up against.  The bond market is pricing in the next recession, while economic data have investors wondering how much worse things can get.
For now, it appears that stockholders are taking the wait and see approach last week as the S&P 500 was able to hold on to its $2900 support and the jobs report showed tremendous resilience by adding 273,000 jobs.  I can’t wait to see what wonders this week holds for investors.

 

“Living for other people’s expectations guarantees you’ll fall short of your own.” –Marie Forleo

 

March 09, 2019

When you don’t finish a job at work, you’re lazy.

When your boss doesn’t finish a job at work, (s)he’s too busy.  😉

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Come From Aways, Do You?

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