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03-MARCH 23-2023

Wild GuessGood morning.
Oil prices have inched back to $70 per barrel, after dropping to one-year lows.  Some analysts, such as the one at Goldman Sachs, sees the price potentially doubling this year to $140.  The reason?  A potential supply crunch as shale oil producers are unable to borrow from small and regional banks.
However, it may be better to take the opposite view.  The inverted yield curve and now banking crisis suggest a recession is imminent, if not underway.  When that happens, oil demand drops as consumers cut back.  That may be why oil prices have been near a 52-week low in the first place.
While we still think there are some pockets of value in the energy space, the easy money of the past two years has been made, and a more neutral to slightly-negative outlook may be more appropriate here.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

This Forgotten Recession Lesson Is Essential
Four decades of rising markets punctuated by crisis-induced crashes seems to have fostered an unspoken belief that no one should ever get hurt in markets or the economy.  Everything “should” always get better for everyone, without any… [Read Here]

Bank Crisis Survivors Remember How Fast Dominoes Can Fall
Steve Chiavarone doesn’t want to scare anyone, but what he remembers most from the last banking crisis was how sure most people were that it wouldn’t happen.  That’s not, of course, how things played out… [Read Here]

March 23, 2022

ShrinkageGood morning.
Traders are now starting to price in 0.5 percent interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve in May and June, following comments by Chairman Jerome Powell on Monday.  Inflation expectations continue to rise, particularly as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to a surge in energy and other commodity prices.
While inflation may be rising, stronger rate hikes increase the chance of a “hard landing” for economic growth, already at or less than zero when adjusted for inflation.  That means the market volatility of the past few months could get worse, given that the Volatility Index, or VIX, has gone nowhere near the panic levels of early 2020 or 2008.
Traders may want to lighten up on leverage, and expect stronger daily swings in the market of 3 percent or more after the current relief rally slows down.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Economists Announce Their Inflation Predictions, It’s Worse Than We Knew
Persistently high inflation will haunt the world economy this year, according to a Reuters poll of economists who trimmed their global growth outlook on worries of slowing demand and the risk interest rates would rise faster than assumed so far. [Read Here]

Elites Demand Middle-Class Americans Suffer The Brunt Of Inflation
An economics professor has a solution for the little people dealing with the country’s inflationary woes: Use mass transportation, eat more veggies instead of meat, and cut back on unnecessary care for your pets.  She went so far as to demand that… [Read Here]

March 23, 2021

The-Human-TouchGood morning.
A lot has been made about rising interest rates.  One point that hasn’t gotten as much attention is to the yield curve.  The yield curve is simply a measure of what interest rates prevail at variously-dated Treasuries.  A healthy curve, like the one we have now, is rising, with investors demanding higher rates to hold bonds of longer periods of time.
The yield curve is also steepening, a sign that the economy is growing.  That’s in contrast to an inverted yield curve, which tends to predict imminent recessions.  The last yield curve?  It triggered in late 2019, well before anyone had even heard of the coronavirus.

Are you worried about interest rates and their potential impact on the stock market yet?

Hit reply and share your thoughts.  And thanks for sharing your thoughts so far!

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The Everything Bubble: How A Debt-Driven Economy Creates More Frequent Crises –Daniel Lacalle, The Mises Institute
Since 1975, economic crises have become more frequent while the pace of recovery has been slower and weaker.  Economies end recessions with increased debts… [Read Here]

Look to Prices, Not Official Metrics, for Inflation’s “Smoking Gun”
Massive monetary stimulus is flooding the world.  How can the average citizen know whether there has been a sudden spike in inflation, and just how quickly their purchasing power is wasting away? [Read Here]

March 23, 2020

I think of miss the daysGood morning.
I hope you were able to relax over the weekend and didn’t have to wait outside of your local Costco for a long while as they limit the number of entrants.  When it’s finally your turn, you got a squirt of hand sanitizer and a freshly wiped down cart.
Nice touch, but I’ll take a shorter wait time please.  I’m struggling a little bit, as you can tell, with what is considered essential services and what isn’t.  Nobody seems to want to consult me.  Well, maybe they shouldn’t.

Special Note:  During these turbulent times, demand for precious metals has surged to levels we’ve never seen before.  Please rest assured, we remain as committed as ever to serving each and every one of our customers.  No matter what happens with the markets or the coronavirus (COVID-19), we have contingencies in place in order to remain ready to help you. 

March 23, 2019

Think this Saturday we ought to have fun!

You think?  😉

March 23, 2018


March 23, 2017

Running Out of TimeSeth Godin reminds … Out of Time on This

Time is running out for all the things I want to experience.  Time is running out for me to level up or connect or to be generous to someone who really needs me.  Time is running out for me to become the person I’ve decided to be, to make the difference you seek to make, to produce the work you know you’re capable of.




Come From Aways, Do You?

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