04-APRIL 06-2023

Good morning.
Last year, we had two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  While that’s historically been the definition of a recession, the data was somewhat ignored by the media at the time.  Today, however, we face a slowing economy, combined with far higher interest rates than last year.
Now, we’re starting to see data from last month’s fear in the banking sector.  Loan demand has slid into a contraction, a big sign that the economy could slow further.  And sales are starting to decline, reflecting a continued slowdown in consumer spending, which represents the bulk of the economy.
For traders, it’s clear that we’ll continue to have more market volatility, and likely a leg lower for stocks.  For investors, it means an opportunity to pick up names more cheaply in the weeks and months ahead.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

New Report Shows How America’s Economy Is Nosediving
The negative revisions keep piling up.  And we expect more of them as the economy weakens.  First off, new orders for manufactured goods in February, down three of the last four months, decreased $3.9 billion or 0.7 percent to… [Read Here]

Why We ave Labor Shortages And High Unemployment Together
This is how we’ll end up with severe shortages of truly skilled labor and high unemployment of those who lack the necessary skills.  The labor force and the job market are referred to as if they were monolithic structures. But… [Read Here]

April 06, 2022

Good morning.
The past 30 years have marked a trend known as globalization.  Supply chains have stretched thousands of miles, as the lowest-cost producers have often been on far-flung shores.  Those low prices have helped keep a lid on inflation, even as governments have remained adept at printing money.
For the past few years, however, some companies have quietly been relocating home.  That quiet move became much more of a stampede in the last two years as the pandemic shut down global trade.  More local manufacturing and supply lines, or even re-made supply lines such as exporting liquefied natural gas from the US to the EU carry higher costs than globalization.
That means that this new trend could result in higher inflation rates than what consumers have been used to for years to come.  Traders should remain bullish on assets that hold up well during times of inflation.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

JPMorgan CEO Warns Americans To Prepare For The Worst
Jamie Dimon identified three forces that are likely to shape the world that “present completely different circumstances than what we’ve experienced in the past” and that combined could dramatically increase the risks ahead. [Read Here]

Biden’s New Tax Plan Breaks Records
The U.S. would have the highest personal income tax rate in the developed world under the newest White House proposal that would dramatically raise the rates paid by well-off Americans.  The budget blueprint that President Biden unveiled… [Read Here]

April 06, 2021

Good morning.
Entire trading strategies have been built around a reversion to the mean.  That can be done with a long-term outlook, like the famous Dogs of the Dow Strategy that rebalances every year.  Traders looking for oversold sectors are also betting that even a sector that’s going down over time may have some big reversals along the way, setting up short-term trades.
In today’s markets, with ultra-low interest rates and fears of inflation rising, looking for those few oversold pockets looks like an attractive opportunity.  Some are even looking at tech following its drop as an oversold play, although tech stocks will always be surprisingly volatile.  While it’s an easy strategy, the tricky part comes down to the timing.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Why Property Diversifying Your Savings for Retirement is Critical (Especially Early On)
The double threat of sequence of returns risk and volatility risk can wreck your savings, especially in retirement.  Here’s how you can build yourself a sturdy, well-protected nest to guard your “nest egg.” [Read Here]

Gold $1,731.30 (-0.2%)
Silver $25.06 (-0.4%)
Platinum $1,219.39 (+2.2%)
Palladium $2,700.01 (-0.4%)

April 06, 2020

Good morning.
As the projected peak infection date of April 15, 2020 approaches, there’s a lot of questions that I have and will likely never resolve.  One thing we need to prepare for is that things are highly likely to fundamentally’ change for a long time in not only the U.S., but throughout the world.
It’s very probable that analysts and many people you know are underestimating the toll socially, politically & economic-ally that the shutdown is causing.  It’s important to be prepared.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Supply of Gold Craters (Just As Demand Surges
Uncertainty regarding coronavirus has global investors flocking to physical gold.  But what happens now that supply is tanking at the same time?

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Vital Mental Health Message from Darren Hardy:

FEMA is sending an army of Emergency Medical Technicians (EMTs), ambulances, and paramedics to NYC which matters to you because it could very well be a strong indicator of what’s to come for the rest of us.
This was done to help the city deal with the overwhelming rush of calls to 911 recently.  “There has never been a busier time in the history of emergency medical services,” said NYC Fire Commissioner Daniel Nigro.

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The good news about the coronavirus pandemic

Robert H. Shmerling, MD
Senior Faculty Editor, Harvard Health Publishing

• Most People with COVID-19 recover.
• Children seem to be infected less often and have a milder ‘reaction to the’ disease.
• The number of new cases is falling where the outbreak began.
• Because the Internet exists, we currently have ways to practice social distancing that preserve at least some social and medical connections.
• Our response to future pandemics should improve.  (The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed shortcomings in healthcare systems throughout the world!)
• Many people and organizations have stepped up to improve the situation…  (Some major health insurers have promised to cover care and testing related to COVID-19 … AND … A number of celebrities and professional athletes have donated significant resources to help!)

The bottom line
Make no mistake: the new coronavirus epidemic is a big problem that’s expected to become bigger in the weeks and months to come.  For those who are infected as well as those trying to avoid infection, these are trying times.  But amid all the doom and gloom, there are some positive stories, positive messages and reasons to remain hopeful.
At a time when the citizenry of this country is so politically divided, we can also hope that this threat brings us together in ways that help us to better recognize commonalities: we’re all human, we get sick, and we worry about loved ones.  As social creatures, we try to help one another when bad things happen.  If that happens, it would be good news that could not have been foreseen before the pandemic.

April 06, 2019

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