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06-JUNE 30-2023

four-stoogesGood morning.
While investors and owners alike are shying away from office space, there’s another potential danger on the market.  And it could be a home on your very block.
That’s because the past few years saw an explosion of small investors buying properties to list on sites like Airbnb (ABNB).  However, the market may now be saturated, with over1 million listings.  Signs also indicate that nightly rental fees on these platforms may be on the decline.
In a worse case scenario, nearly 1 million short-term rental properties could go up for sale.  That would help the current real estate market’s supply problem.  But in turn, that could also push single-family home prices lower.  Investors in this part of the real estate market may want to tread lightly.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Fed Insiders Alarmed By New Bank Chart
Between March 10 and May 1 of this year, three of the largest bank failures in U.S. history occurred.  On March 10 the FDIC seized Silicon Valley Bank after $42 billion in deposits had exited the bank the day prior with another $100 billion queued up to leave the next day… [Read Here]

June 30, 2022

Prizes for MenGood morning.
Many traders today have started well after the tech crash in 2000, and even after the housing market crash that ended in 2009.  Consequently, they know that all investors have to do is “buy the dip.”
In the long-run, that’s usually true.  Zoom out on any market and it goes up and to the right.  Even big drops tend to look like bumps over time.  But bear markets tend to last a lot longer than many expect.  We may only be partway though.  And as long as the Fed is continuing to raise interest rates, the trend will likely remain down.
The good news?  Some of the markets biggest swings occur in bear markets.  That’s ideal for trading.  It’s also ideal for building the foundation of a portfolio that can grow in a bull market while also delivering solid income now, given the selloff in income-generating stocks.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Why This Tightening Cycle Is Unique In History
When Canada’s Consumer Price Index for May was released a couple of days ago, it was – “as expected,” I would say – a lot lot worse than expected, and exceeded once again by a huge margin the inflation forecasts by the Bank of Canada.  According to the… [Read Here]

Who Is Really To Blame For Inflation
Who is to blame for the rampant inflation the United States (and the entire world) have been experiencing over the past 12 to 24 months?  Which individuals and institutions can we hold accountable for the highest consumer price increases in 40 years… [Read Here]

June 30, 2021

Current Events2Good morning.
China announced it was unleashing its strategic reserves of some commodities.  That help broke a strong uptrend for many goods such as iron ore.  In the US, strong production and a slowing demand for houses has helped curb the excesses in the lumber market, which is now far off its peak.
With most commodities still coming off highs, one is still coming in hot: literally.  Hot rolled steel prices have hit a record high.  This high-grade steel is moving higher in anticipation of an infrastructure bill passing in the coming weeks and new construction projects coming online later in the year.  Time will tell if that’s the outcome, but higher steel prices can still create some shortages throughout the rest of the economy.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Gold Is Best Bought Before the Next Economic Crisis 
This could be the start of a cycle where the government spends even more, abetted by the Fed’s lack of concern about inflation.  Amateur investors will be caught off-guard.  There’s a possibility of extreme social unrest… [Read Here]

June 30, 2020

Today was Terrific Tuesday!
Because my wife and decided to make it so…  We picked up my mother, who lives alone and been cooped up like many “good Alberta’s self-isolating” and just got out into the fresh air together.  Yes it was raining, as ‘the weather’ has done for most of June in Calgary, but the air was clear, fresh and alive!
In less than an hour the visit was over, but it just felt so good to see each other, even as we continued wearing our own protective masks!!!
Love You Mum, love you!  …  In other matters, the Markets!

Easy PeezyGood morning.
I wrote about the possibility last week but it now a reality.  Wells Fargo is cutting their dividend in order to meet the Federal Reserve’s requirements following the stress tests.  While the exact pay-out hasn’t been determined, it is a reflection of the difficulty of big banks in a recession.
The question is going to be whether Wells Fargo is the first domino to fall.  [Likely not.]

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The Biggest Disconnect Between Prices And Profits In Stock Market History?  Everyone is talking about the massive disparity between stock prices and fundamentals right now.  To paraphrase Jeremy Grantham, we now find ourselves in the top 1% of stock market valuations and the bottom 1% of economic outcomes (based on the annualized rate of decline in second quarter GDP).  A popular way to demonstrate this gap is seen in the chart below which plots total equity values along with total corporate profits.  [Read Here] the rest of the Felder Report.

June 30, 2019

“Compliments are like potato chips. Once you’ve had one you look for more.” – Harvey Mackay

As you may be able to tell, I just receive Harvey Mackay’s Weekly Nationally Syndicated Column…

In it was an article entitled, People Live Up To The Encouragement They Receive

Encouragement is an especially valuable tool … a manager who cares will remember these basic elements.  Here are the quick five:

  1. “I want to feel important.”  No one wants to feel like a number, interchangeable and easy to forget.  Get to know your employees as people; find out what makes each one unique and show them you’re paying attention to their individuality.
  2. “I need encouragement.”  Even the best employees continue to flourish and grow with positive feedback.  Let them know what they’re doing right and how they can keep performing at a high level.  They’ll notice and keep up their efforts.
  3. “I want to believe in you.”  Employees want to know they can trust you – your knowledge, your expertise and your word.  Show your commitment to helping them succeed and grow by listening, answering questions honestly and keeping your promises.
  4. “I want to succeed.”  Most employees want to do a good job, even if they don’t necessarily want to advance.  Explain your expectations clearly, and give them the training and support they need so they know you’re investing in helping them.
  5. “I want to be motivated.”  Yes, motivation springs from inside, but employees want to be told why they should complete a project or improve quality in terms that make sense to them.  Emphasize the job’s value to the organization, as well as the benefits the employee will enjoy — personal satisfaction as well as more tangible rewards — to unleash their enthusiasm and commitment.

As humorist Robert Henry said: “People do not live by bread alone.  They need buttering up once in a while.”

As always … thanks Harvey, 🙂

Come From Aways, Do You?

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