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07-JULY 14-2023

MazeGood morning.
The job market has held up well in the past year, as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates at its fastest pace in 40 years.  However, that trend is showing signs of buckling.  Hiring is down about 21 percent compared to a year ago, based on the most recent data.
That could be a sign that the job market will start to show signs of weakness, and that unemployment will rise from here.  While that could be good for ensuring inflation doesn’t tick up again, it does also raise the possibility of a recession.
So far the data is showing an economic slowdown, but not the “hard landing” that many feared last year.  Traders should still be cautious, and weigh the job market against other pieces of data out there today.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Russia & China Force The World Back To Gold
The influence of the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – should not be underestimated.  And major geopolitical shifts are ahead.  Here’s why their latest scheme is likely to accelerate the global de-dollarization drive… [Read Here]

July 14, 2022

ChoirGood morning.
The unexpectedly high inflation report increases the chances that the Federal Reserve will hike another 0.75 percent later this month.  Some traders are even betting on a full point increase in interest rates.  Whatever the outcome, a few signs are coming in that inflation may soon peak.
That’s based on two factors.  The first is that commodity prices have taken a big hit in recent weeks.  Energy in particular has slid, which is a core cost for economic inputs, as well as one of the biggest drivers of inflation over the past year.  Next, there’s rising expectations for interest rate cuts in 2023.  In other words, expectations are rising that inflation will drop substantially in the coming months, and that the Fed may overshoot, leading to rate cuts next year.
Until then, the latest data is bearish in the short-term.  Traders should look for a further downtrend in the coming weeks as the next rate hike could end up higher than expected.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The Euro And USD Haven’t Done This In 20 Years
The euro hit $1 on Tuesday, down about 12% since the start of the year.  Fears of recession on the continent abound, stoked by high inflation and energy supply uncertainty caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The European Union… [Read Here]

China And Russia Move To Destroy The US Dollar
The BRICS — an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — held a summit on June 23.  The meeting, chaired by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, was part of a lengthy series of BRICS cooperation events, which began on June 6 with… [Read Here]

July 14, 2021

What on EarthGood morning.
The narrative of the past few months has been that rising inflation rates are transitory, a fancy central-banker’s word for temporary in nature.  Well, if it’s temporary, it’s not over yet. The June numbers crept higher than the May numbers.
Sure, there are some signs of relief.  Lumber prices have now unwound their 2021 gains.  They’re still higher than a year ago, but well off their highs.  Ditto with Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.  And speculation in some parts of the stock market has left a number of trades well off of their highs, even as the overall market trends higher.  Transitory or not, investors are always wise to find companies that can benefit from higher inflation rates, and pass on those costs to their consumers the best.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Inflation Spreads Economy-Wide, Cost of Living Posts Biggest Surge Since 2008 –Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
Prices for food, energy, clothing, plane tickets and hotels also rose sharply.  The increase stunned economists, and raised questions about the Federal Reserve’s predictions… [Read Here]

Biden’s New Death Tax Hits the Middle Class While Excluding Certain Wealthy Investors –Hank Adler, Reason
The plan hits individuals with identical net worths very differently.  Millions of taxpayers would see decades of investment and planning for their families reduced or destroyed in an instant… [Read Here]

July 14, 2020

Founding MothersGood morning.
California is now back in focus after Governor Gavin Newsome announced that they were going on lockdown again.
While the policy there is a chance that the policy may be effective, it does signal to the market that leaders are willing to go there again.  This jeopardizes the outlook for a V-shaped recovery if it wasn’t already in doubt.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Another Massive Collapse
Already, cases are rising in dozens of states.  And the states seeing explosive growth in infections are taking an economic beating.  But this is likely the beginning.  In fact, the shocking data in a recent White House document (not intended for the public) suggests the unthinkable.  200,000 people could be infected every day leading to 3,000 deaths per day.
No wonder Moody’s Analytic chief economist told CNBC…

“If we get a second wave, it will be a depression.”

The warning signs are unmistakable!  Rates of Unemployment

Unemployment rates have fallen, Yes!
The decline in joblessness mostly occurred because employers invited back their furloughed workers as states reopened their economies.  The chart [on the right] shows the worst hit industries:

“Success is simple, once you accept how hard it is.”
—Craig Ballantyne

July 14, 2019

Because we’re afraid that we won’t like it, or that we will fail in our execution, we tend to overwhelm ourselves with questions and conditions, trying to figure everything out beforehand and guarantee that we will succeed before we even start.

“Inaction breeds doubt and fear.  Action breeds confidence and courage.  If you want to conquer fear, do not sit at home and think about it.  Get out and get busy.” – Dale Carnegie

The only way to get the answers you seek, to know for sure if the idea you have is worth trying, is by actually trying it.  If you can get yourself to start executing, you will naturally create momentum, which will move you forward and into completion.

The more you do something, the less afraid you are of it, the more expertise you’ll gain along the way, and ultimately, this expertise will help you make connections, have new ideas, and come up with inno-vative ways of solving the problems you face, also known as inspiration!

Spectacular Sunday!  😉

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Come From Aways, Do You?

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