Good morning.
The rate of inflation has slowed by two-thirds over the past year. But getting back down to a pre-Covid level may prove more painful than the bear market of 2022. One reason? The strong labor market.
Some sections of the market have considerable buying power. For instance, airline pilots for FedEx (FDX) just rejected a proposal that would have seen their wages jump 30 percent. While a big boost, other airline pilots have seen more increases over the past year. If big wage jumps continue, we could see a return to the 1970’s, where increased wages led to more demand, higher prices, and then a demand for further wage increases.
This type of inflation, known as wage push inflation, could keep prices higher for longer. It may not kill off the current stock market rally, but it could weigh on corporate profits, and thus future market returns. Traders should expect the market to slow down following its strong rise so far this year.
Now here’s the rest of the news:
July 26, 2022
Good morning.
After seeing the surprise negative Q1 GDP numbers, and the ongoing inflation, we went out on a short limb to state that we are already in a recession. We should see confirmation of that this week when the initial Q2 GDP data for 2022 is released.
One sign that things could be ugly is in the messaging that’s already occurring. Over the weekend, the White House came out with a statement that, even if the economy dropped for two quarters in a row, it may not really be in a recession. However, that’s literally the definition, at least as used by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Of course, the NBER didn’t declare the 2008 recession until about a year after it happened. In short, don’t be fooled by any changed definitions or massaged terms coming out this week. It’s still a bear market, and one where traders need to be nimble.
Now here’s the rest of the news:
The 3 Phases of Retirement Saving (Plus, How to Avoid the #1 Mistake)
Saving or planning to save for retirement in 2022 is getting more challenging as each day passes. Inflation is still accelerating and stealing your… [Read Here]
Can America Survive Peak Inflation?
For many Americans, economic times like these are a true test of their retirement planning. If you have a plan, hopefully it’s holding up so far. Although… [Read Here]
July 26, 2021
Good morning.
As much as Wall Street loves rumours, Washington DC is the major league. The latest rumours are that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell might not be nominated for a second term to lead the Fed. While his tenure has been little different than his prior two predecessors given the crises he’s had to deal with, some progressives don’t think the Fed chair has done enough on income inequality and other matters.
That could lead the White House to find a more radical leader for the central bank, potentially even one willing to embrace the latest economic theories such as modern monetary theory (MMT), which would somehow give everyone free money each month without causing inflation or supply chain disruptions. Powell may yet serve another term, but if he doesn’t, we’ll have to retire (or at least update) our favorite meme.
Now here’s the rest of the news:
Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere: Jeremy Grantham on the Bust Ahead –Chris Taylor,Reuters
Famed asset manager Grantham called both the dot-com bubble and the 2008 bubble. How bad is this one? The Reuters editor said, “After editing this interview I had trouble sleeping last night.” [Read Here]
July 26, 2020
Here’s to a better YOU … and now … Today’s DarrenDaily Recap Sunday. A collection of the weeks videos from Darren Hardy. Enjoy!
Describing its beauty!!! Harry’s Harbor, Newfoundland, Canada.
Magnificent…
July 26, 2019
The Willingness to Be Unpopular … Fitting in can be very costly indeed.
Politics is a place we see this played out often. There’s an old joke that people vote in three ways:
- With the ballot box,
- with the jury box,
- and if all else fails, the cartridge box.
But state governments forget that folks can vote in another way as well: With their feet. While the trend has been noticeable in California, the high-tax state of New Jersey is seeing a massive exodus of its middle class.
The power of the press and the clamor of the crowd will many times unnerve a statesman to the point they abandon their position and cave into the popular direction. If Prime Ministers and Presidents were elected to only one term – perhaps they would be making decisions they considered to be the best for the country rather than the best for re-election. A true leader doesn’t disregard public opinion or the criticism and reproach of the press, but he/she doesn’t let it run him/her either.
The leader has a higher vision – a longer-term responsibility – and makes the tough decisions that most people aren’t willing to make. Today’s quote is from Brian Tracy.
“Become the kind of leader that people would follow voluntarily, even if you had no title or position.”
The road is narrow. The journey can be lonely. The rewards are great. 🙂
