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07-JULY 27-2023

Good morning.  The Fed’s quarter-point rate hike following the June pause was well telegraphed in advance.  But another trend indicates that the Fed – and other central banks around the world – are just about done.
That trend is the global real-yield curve.  After moving far above its historic range in 2020, it’s now come back to its long-term trendline.  That’s a sign that raising interest rates significantly from here may not do much to bring down inflation, and if anything, it could simply hurt the economy.
Investors playing the bond market may want to buy long bonds.  If interest rates are near their peak, the next move would be lower interest rates, which cause bond prices, particularly long-dated bonds, to rise.

July 07, 2022

friendly competitionGood morning.
While the stock market is likely to rally as soon as the Federal Reserve announces they are done raising interest rates, that still leaves the possibility for a further decline in the months ahead until that happens.
One big reason for such a decline may be the fact that earnings are clearly dropping.  Walmart (WMT) warned on its full-year sales numbers, and was hit hard by he market on Tuesday.  That may just be the start for corporate America, and many Wall Street analysts have yet to cut their earnings forecasts.  That could make for a second half of a market decline in the coming months.
Either way, the data is still pointing to a lot of stress in the market right now, so traders shouldn’t give up on bearish opportunities like put options quite yet.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

US Natural Gas Prices Re-Spike
So we have a little situation here.  By early June, the price of natural gas futures in the US had spiked to over $9.50 per million Btu, roughly triple the price from a year earlier, and quadruple the price in 2020.  This spike was caused by US exports of… [Read Here]

14 Signs The Economy Is Poised To Crash
It looks like we are going to get official confirmation that a recession has already begun when the GDP number for the second quarter comes out later this week.  But that isn’t what we should be focusing on.  Yes, things weren’t great during… [Read Here]

July 27, 2021

Market AnalysisGood morning.
Trading is fun and exciting, and being able to leverage small short-term moves into big profits makes for a fun and profitable hobby, even with the occasional big loss to talk about.  But some of the best returns can come from taking a long-term position in a multi-year trend.
In a special edition of Trading Tips today, we’ll be looking more in-depth at what’s set to be the biggest trend of the decade.  It’s potentially a $30 trillion market, far bigger than 5G, the Internet of Things, all the meme stocks combined, and even cryptocurrencies.  It’s changing the way the world works already, but the trend is still in its early stages.  And a long-term investment in this space could yield big returns without the daily swings of trading.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Democrats’ Infrastructure Spending Could Lead To Devastating Crash, Druckenmiller Warns –Tyler Durden,ZeroHedge
Further stimulus spending is a huge mistake.  Druck said, “If I was Darth Vader and I wanted to destroy the US economy, I would do aggressive spending in the middle of an already hot economy…” [Read Here]

July 27, 2020

Humpty TrumptyGood morning.

“All my life, whenever it comes time to make a decision,
I make it and forget about it.”
—Harry S. Truman

The market’s performance over the past several months has been historic in so many ways.  One way that is most pressing is the few companies driving the performance.
Four of these companies are set to announce earnings this week.  Last week, there was the early indication of jitters, the real question is whether Apple, Amazon, Alphabet and Face-book can calm the jitters and turn investors feverish again.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

“What will follow this time could easily be America’s Next Civil War” according to Porter Stansberry.
There have been three times in the last 100 years that most Americans saw a HUGE amount of their incomes and their savings get wiped out…
All because of simple monetary change they didn’t understand…
What follows these incredible monetary revolutions is poverty, violence, and a political upheaval.

John Persinos warns: “Don’t Let The Covidiots Erase Your Wealth”
Cursed with what he says is an excellent memory, he remembers back in 2007, on the eve of the global financial meltdown and Great Recession, many policymakers and pundits were insisting that everything was just fine because the market was up and stock prices are the best gauge of prosperity.  Clinical psychologist call it “toxic positivity.”  Maybe, the term best used should be Mindless optimism…

Headlines about “positive” results concerning vaccines have accomplished at least one goal: they’ve lined the pockets of corporate insiders.  Maybe, the term used here should be The vaccine pump-and-dump…  Financial media are hyping the hopes for a coronavirus vaccine.  However, it’s highly unlikely that a vaccine can be developed and deployed this year.

Kindergarten on the Potomac…  Meanwhile, amid a contracting economy and high levels of unemploy-ment, Washington’s politicians are squabbling like children.

July 27, 2019

black-holeAn agreement was just reached to have the debt ceiling suspended again, allowing for more federal spending to add to the U.S. debt “black hole”.  But that isn’t the only “monster” brewing in the economy.

Corporate share buybacks have been increasing, and risky lending practices are also plaguing the economy.  If this continues to grow, it could push the economy to its “boiling point”.  [Gold, says expert Ray Dalio, is a must-have investment.]

THE UPTREND IN DATA SECURITY

Most companies lose when hackers steal data.  CapitalOne for example: But today, we’ll show you one that wins…

Friends know we’re always looking to invest in big secular trends.  Today, one of these trends is the personal data we store on the Internet… and the growing need for cybersecurity.  Last year’s breach at credit-reporting bureau Equifax (EFX) compromised the personal information of about 145 million Americans.  As hacks like this keep increasing, more businesses will turn to cybersecurity experts for help.

Today, we can see this concept at work in shares of the Proofpoint (PFPT)… Proofpoint’s software helps secure companies’ communications.  It also defends against viruses and
hacking attempts.  Earlier this month, Proofpoint reported that its sales jumped 36% from last year.  Plus, it’s setting its sights on future growth.  Last year, it took over two other cybersecurity firms, Cloudmark and Weblife.

Proofpoint stock price risesProofpoint has soared.  Shares are up more than 620% over the past five years… And they just hit a new all-time high.

More companies are turning to companies like Proofpoint for protection…  😉

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