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08-AUGUST 16-2023

RandomGood morning.  With a slight decline in the markets over the past few weeks, one trend is getting overlooked: Corporate America’s performance.  So far, about 80 percent of S&P 500 companies now reporting have beaten earnings estimates.  That’s a 2.5 year high.
Meanwhile, with stocks pulling back, the underperformance relative to that positive earnings surprise is at its largest gap in years.  That’s a hint that the latest market drop may not have much further to go.
As long as corporate earnings can continue to grow, along with a strong labor market and relatively lower inflation, markets could be set up for strong conditions for a year-end rally.  Over time, following earnings leads to better investment success than following prices.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The Truth About The “Booming Economy”
Economists and pundits are falling all over themselves to declare the U.S. is chugging along splendidly, and to express their frustration with the public for their curmudgeonly lack of enthusiasm… [Read Here]

Credit Card Debt Reaches A New Record
A second indicator in less than a week shows that Americans have racked up $1 trillion in credit card debt – a first. Outstanding credit balances hit $1.03 trillion in the second quarter, according to new data released Tuesday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York… [Read Here]

August 16, 2022

CivilizationGood morning.  Last year, we cautioned that low interest rates and historically low mortgage rates wouldn’t last.  If you timed the bottom in rates last year perfectly, mortgage rates were about half of what they are today.  As that trend looks to continue higher, housing is starting to show signs of slowing down as well.
For those who own their homes, that may mean a drop in the home’s value.  If you’re not looking to sell anytime soon, that’s not a problem.  But for investors, this can mean an opportunity to get into the housing market in the next few months.  While interest rates may be far higher now, traders are betting on rate cuts as early as next year, which could mean the ability to refinance at lower rates.
In short, now is the time to head to the sidelines in this market, but look to potentially get a buy in the months ahead, or even early next year when pricing will be better.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Ron Paul Reveals Exactly How Much the Federal Reserve Has Already Robbed You
Even after decades educating Americans on economics, I’m still amazed by the number of people who have no idea… [Read Here]

The Top 3 Dangers to Your Retirement Savings
With the abnormal levels of economic uncertainty we are encountering right now, you’re probably already feeling wary.  Even the official inflation update isn’t easing… [Read Here]

August 16, 2021

Business_09Good morning.
The stock market quickly bounced back from its Covid crash of March 2020, assisted in part by trillions in stimulus and help from central banks (which is still going on).  With that kind of help, how can an investor determine what’s really going on?  By looking at other data than stock prices or GDP, which includes government spending as part of its calculation.
One trend worth watching is in freight trends.  The Cass Freight Index (there’s an index for everything) shows that goods shipped by road and rail in North America finally hit a pre-pandemic level in July.  While a good metric for tracking the economic recovery, physical goods are becoming less useful in today’s interconnected digital age.  But it’s a sign that the economy has room to grow, and is largely recovered outside some supply chain issues and a labor market mismatch.

Precious Metals Prices
Price at week’s end (change over last week)

 

Gold … $1,780.68 (+0.9%)
Silver … $23.82 (-2.5%)
Platinum … $1,038.25 (+5.0%)
Palladium … $2,683.55 (+0.8%)

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Inflation Is Winning, and Here’s Why the Fed Seems Content To Let It Happen
A peek at the shocking state of the government’s balance sheet explains why the Fed has thrown in the towel on the fight against inflation… [Read Here]

More Money Doesn’t Mean More Wealth
Excessively high inflation seems like it’s here to stay.  Some voices have given up on condemning inflation, and instead have chosen to welcome its benefits, like bigger paychecks for workers!  Here’s why that’s utterly absurd… [Read Here]

Manager Who Called Gold’s All-Time High Sees Price Doubling in 3-5 Years
The Quadriga Igneo manager outlines the longer-term case for gold to double, at least.  There are a number of reasons he thinks gold might climb as high as $5,000… [Read Here]

August 16, 2020

“Listening is the foundation, not just of negotiation, but of everything worthwhile in life.”
—Alex B Carter

Here’s to a better YOU … and now … Today’s DarrenDaily Recap Sunday.  A collection of the weeks videos from Darren Hardy.  Enjoy!

Describing its beauty!!!  Taken in St. Anthony, Newfoundland, Canada.

Aerial view of Saint Anthony, Nfld

Aerial view of a small town on a rocky Atlantic Ocean Coast during a cloudy day.

August 16, 2019

Good morning.
Harry Markopoulos, an auditor who reported Bernie Madoff’s Ponzi scheme to regulators on multiple occasions, wrote a book about his experience called No One Would Listen.
On Thursday, he released a report outlining how General Electric (GE) had over $38 billion in potential accounting issues across various divisions.  As accounting practices vary, the market was a bit skeptical at the problems.  But the report was still enough to send shares of the company down about 11 percent on the day.  Unlike the government, Mr. Market is listening.

**  **  **

Lotto ManiaI’m retweeting this as there’s a newfound interest in eating less red meat, addressing global warming, and alternative ways of living life healthier.  Good Morning.

We’re always cautious on any company going public.  IPOs are an opportunity for a company to raise capital before it has a trading history, and usually before it’s even profitable.  If a company has a great story, it may have a huge rally from its IPO, but reality will eventually set in.

Beyond Meat, one of the hot IPOs of the year, saw this recently.  Shares are down over 29% from their all-time high following an earning report where it quadrupled sales — but the company also announced it was issuing more shares.  Even a fast growing company won’t always grow fast enough to keep the market happy.  We suspect other recent IPOs will see similar drops as earnings season unwinds.

Motivational Quote of the Week

“It’s not always that we need to do more but rather we need to focus on less.” — Nathan W. Morris

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Come From Aways, Do You?

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