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08-AUGUST 26-2023

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August 26, 2022

Paid VacationGood morning.
The Biden Administration is moving forward with a plan to cancel $10,000 in student loan balances, with most of that going to those who are earning under $125,000 per year.  But the debt isn’t really being cancelled – it’s simply being transferred to the government’s balance sheet from hundreds of thousands of individuals.
That will create some inflationary pressure, but mostly on lower-cost goods.  That’s because money that would go to debt payments can go elsewhere.  But for investors, that will likely result in a boost in demand for consumer goods, which should be good for those stocks in the coming months.  As for a loser?  There isn’t an obvious one, given that the loans are ultimately being transferred.
What this does mean is that inflation may be slightly higher than it would be otherwise, a trend that may play out in a few months.  For now, stick with quality companies, and look for those firms best capable of passing along higher prices to their customers.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

This Hasn’t Happened Since The Last Housing Collapse
The plunge in home sales is just stunning.  Sales of new single-family houses collapsed by 12.6% in July from the already beaten-down levels in June, and by nearly 30% from July of last year, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511,000… [Read Here]

Jerome Powell Triggers Panic And Anxiety At Goldman Sachs
What was already a difficult task for J-Powell who leads off Friday’s J-Hole symposium with a closely watched speech at 10am, became even more complex when in addition to red hot inflation, today’s data confirmed that… [Read Here]

August 26, 2021

Business_11Good morning.
There are plenty of numbers and trends to look at to determine the future moves of the stock market or even individual stocks.  One area to pay keen attention to is changes in trends regarding margin debt.  Typically, margin debt rises over time, reflecting higher stock values.  When it starts to trend lower, it indicates that traders are turning more cautious, which could be a sign that there’s little left to a market rally.
Levels of margin debt have now started to decline overall, dropping about 4.3 percent from its peak in June.  While the stock market has trended higher since then, remember that it’s only been a few individual stocks holding up the entire average.  This doesn’t portend a massive market drop, but is another sign that there may be more volatility and a few big down days in the months ahead — so look for trading opportunities there.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The War in Afghanistan Was a Scam –Jason Linkins
Our withdrawal set off recriminations about the U.S. “lost” and was “humiliated.”  So who benefited?  After all, as any gambler knows, there’s a winner for every loser… [Read Here]

August 26, 2020

Not too sureGood morning.
As the most widely followed major market index by retail investors, the announcement that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is removing Exxon, Pfizer and Raytheon and replacing them with Salesforce, Amgen and Honeywell is a big deal.  One of the reasons for the significance is the underperformance of the Dow and the upcoming stock split by Apple.  As Apple’s Dow preeminence is diminishing with the stock split, it’s now placing pressure on other names to take over leadership.  It becomes even more precarious given the historical jinx for new additions to the Dow.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

According to the CDC, having one of these two conditions increases your risk of hospitalization and your risk of death from COVID-19 by a factor of 4.
Masks substantially lower your risk of infection by filtering what you inhale and what you exhale.  The simplest mask – like a bandanna – might only help protect other people, but it still reduces community spread, which means it reduces everyone’s risk.
Don’t get me wrong – everyone hates wearing masks.  But everyone hates seat belts, too.  So why do we wear them?  Because it’s a precaution against a much more severe tragedy.
Another precaution you can take against COVID-19 – one that hasn’t gotten as much attention – is weight loss…  This doesn’t reduce your risk of infection like masks can.  Instead, it reduces the impact of the disease if you do get infected.  You see, like age, obesity puts you at greater risk of hospitalization and death from COVID-19.  The only other clear risk factor is chronic lung disease – which happens in half of all smokers.
This 400% increased risk is for folks between the ages of 40 and 69.  In other words, risk is not just tied to your age… It’s also tied to lifestyle.  So the sooner you can reverse unhealthy living, the better it is for you.

“Main Street Is Struggling Severely” … Wall Street Euphoria Ignores Main Street Crash
Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Nouriel Roubini warned the stock market is completely disconnected from the dire economic outlook of a waning recovery amid continued depressionary pressures.  The global economy is slowing, and another downturn could be ahead if a vaccine is not found in short order.   [and]

The Quiet American Reset
The great decoupling is here.  The U.S. now has a plan to purge Chinese tech companies fully from America’s internet, creating what the Trump administration has dubbed the Clean Network.  It mirrors the White House’s existing 5G Clean Path initiative to remove all Chinese components from systems ‘everywhere’, and which now extends it to everything tech on the ‘net. [Read More]

August 26, 2019

Nothing Ruins Truth Like Stretching It

Charles finally made partner and propped his feet on the desk in his new corner office.  He was dreaming of all the perks that accompanied his promotion when a knock on the door snapped him out of his reverie.

He picked up the phone so he would look busy as a young staffer came into the room.  “I’ll be with you in a minute,” Charles mouthed to the employee, before engaging in a mock phone conversation.

Trump gives me a truth-ache“Yes, I know the congressman quite well.  We go sailing with the governor every other week,” he said.  He glanced over at the employee standing near his desk.  “One more minute,” he whispered before returning to the phone call.

“I’d be happy to introduce you,” he continued.  “In fact, if you’re free next Wednesday, we’re having lunch.  Great.  Wednesday it is,” he said as he hung up the phone.

“Thanks for being so patient,” Charles said to the young staffer.  “Now how can I help you?”

The employee blushed and said, “I’m here to connect your phone.”

Try to tap dance out of that one!

I am convinced that often, the hardest language to speak is the truth.  Sometimes it’s easier to tell an embellished truth, or a half-truth, or a little white lie to save face or spare others’ feelings.  But eventually, when the truth comes out, there are consequences.

“Even when the truth hurts, it’s more painful to hurt your reputation.” —Harvey Mackay

Abraham Lincoln once said of a man who was attacking him, “He’s the biggest liar in Washington.”

Honest Abe said the man reminded him of an old fisherman who had the reputation for stretching the truth.  The fisherman bought a pair of scales and insisted on weighing every fish he caught in the presence of witnesses.

One day a doctor borrowed the fisherman’s scales to weigh a newborn baby.  The baby weighed 47 pounds.

Now that’s what I call a whopper!  😉

Come From Aways, Do You?

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