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10-OCTOBER 12-2023

AccountabilityGood morning.  The International Monetary Fund expects that inflation won’t be fully out of the economy through 2025.  While that may add some fuel to the “higher for longer” crowd in terms of interest rates, the signs of a recession in 2024 haven’t gone away.
The extreme moves in the bond market in the past few weeks led to a steepening of the inverted yield curve.  That’s a sign of a recession ahead.  Add in declining consumer savings, a bigger slowdown is still ahead.  In other words, a likely recession in 2024 will mean victory over inflation by 2025.
For now, markets are still primed for a year-end rally.  Going into the start of the year, investors and traders alike should get increasingly cautious until the data suggests otherwise.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Watch: “U.S. Consumers Are Living On Borrowed Time”
Heritage Foundation public finance economist E.J. Antoni says consumers are increasingly relying on debt and dipping into savings as spending rises on the Fox Business show Making Money… [Read Here]

U.S. Banks Can’t Afford To Reduce Risks
Regulators proposed a 16% increase in banks’ cash reserves back in July.  Only the largest banks would be affected (and they have enough capital to comply already).  So why are the CEOs of the U.S.’s largest banks saying they can’t afford it? [Read Here]

October 12, 2022

New GenerationsGood morning.
Stocks tend to move higher for one of two reasons.  The first is if a company can grow its earnings over time.  That’s a simple measure, favoured by value investors like Warren Buffett.  The second is if a company’s valuation multiple can increase, the kind of investment being sought by tech investors like Cathie Wood.
So far this year, the market has seen a drop in valuation thanks to lower prices.  But now with companies reporting lower earnings overall, there may be room for a further drop in shares on an earnings basis.  While other factors loom large – like how central banks are treating the economy – it’s clear that we’ve only seen the impact of one of those two measures that move stocks so far.  For traders, caution remains the watchword of the day.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

How To Calculate Your ‘Personal Inflation Rate’
There’s no question that persistently high inflation is pinching household budgets across the nation.  Yet, depending on variables such as location and spending patterns, your personal rate of inflation could be better or worse than the… [Read Here]

New Forecasts Point Towards A Disastrous November
Nowcast data looks disappointing for October’s U.S. CPI inflation data.  Currently the inflation nowcast from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has October inflation running at 0.8% month-on-month, with core inflation at just over 0.5%.  Of course… [Read Here]

October 12, 2021

Sad September SongGood morning.
One sign of an overvalued market occurs when company CEOs step down from their role, often after many years.  It’s tough to bow out at the top, and those who can will try to do so, rather than stay too long and get forced out after a bad decision or market events destroy shareholder value.  We saw a large rush of company executives leave in early 2020, just into the pandemic selloff.
Now, that trend has slowed down.  But it’s not over yet.  Henry Kravis and George Roberts, founders of private equity giant KKR, are stepping down as co-CEOs.  While they’ll remain co-executive chairman, the billionaires will no longer be in the driver’s seat the next time the economy takes a turn.   It’s a yellow flag for investors out there, especially as valuations remain high.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Inflation Alert: Expect to See 25% Inflation Rate, Says Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel –Jason Bisnoff,Forbes
While cautioning that he isn’t engaging in conspiracy theory, Siegel mistrusts government numbers due to obsolete data collection methods… [Read Here]

October 12, 2020

tenor (5)Happy Thanksgiving.
Did you know that the #1 search criteria on Pinterest is for: Positive prompts from your brand.  ie: ‘how to be positive” are spiking as people look to Pinterest for optimistic inspiration.

  • Positive good morning quotes: +39x
  • Monday motivation quotes positivity: +4x
  • Positive quotes motivation daily affirmations: +11x

This post is a positive reminder to nudge Pinners to stay optimistic:

  • “Positivity jar” …+60%
  • “Body positive tattoo” … +158%
  • “Positive bulletin board ideas” … +172%

Put these trends to work: Reach Pinners as they search for “positive bulletin board ideas” with your own version of this concept.  Include products from your brand, surrounded by positive quotes and images.

The Light Snack That Keeps You LaughingCASE STUDY: The Laughing Cow
To launch a new brand purpose, new packaging and a reformulated recipe, The Laughing Cow from Bel Brands USA took to Pinterest with a video campaign highlighting the light-hearted nature of the better-for-you snack.  The video Pin completion rate was 47% more efficient than the food industry benchmark¹, proving the power of standard video ads that align to positive content.

¹ The Laughing Cow internet data and Pinterest internal data, US, May-August 2020.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Good morning.  Another day, and another piece of evidence that financial markets are being driven by the hope of more stimulus in the short term.  On Friday, President Trump came out stating that he not only wanted another stimulus package, but one that was larger than what either party was offering.
That’s an unusual tactic, as it would mean getting his own Republican party on board with a bigger stimulus plan than the one the Democrats have put forth.  So while we won’t believe it until we see it, the stock market loved the headline, giving stocks another nudge higher into the weekend.

Why the Housing Boom Is Nowhere Near Over… The housing market is totally out of balance… but not in the way you might expect.
Considering that we’re in the middle of a global pandemic and an economic recession, you’d think any market imbalance would be a bad thing.  But that’s not the case in housing.
You see, the market can only fix this problem one way… supply and demand must tip back into balance.  Today, existing home supply in the U.S. ties for the lowest it has been in more than 20 years.  And that means the housing boom has much more upside ahead.

October 12, 2019

TodayGood day one-and-all!  By now you know I very much enjoy and subscribe to DarrenDaily.  Darren emails each weekday, as a free service that cannot be beat!

Enjoys today’s topic, “What’s Wrong With Other People.”

This is, of course, Thanksgiving … a long weekend in Canada!  Good Eats … Great Family … and Much, Much More to be Grateful for!

I’ll leave with the words of Lisa Nichols…

“Your whole life is a manifestation of the thoughts that go on in your head.”

Lots to be thankful for… 🙂

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Come From Aways, Do You?

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