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October 15, 2021

Current Events_15Good morning.
Wednesday’s inflation numbers came in at a 15 year high.  But beyond the headlines, core inflation numbers have started to show a slowdown, with a rise of 0.2 percent from August.  It’s not a reversal, but a still-hidden sign that inflation may be moderating.  The bond market picked up on the news, with yields ticking down slightly.
If that’s the case, then many of the fears impacting the market right now may go away.  That could explain part of Thursday’s rally, on top of the debt ceiling delay to December.  While we’re not out of the woods yet on the labor market, declining inflation expectations can also delay any change in monetary policy that could truly lead to a big round of fear in the market.  If anything, it’s just one more sign that the recent volatility has been seasonal, and that markets are setting up nicely for a year-end rally.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Evergrande Default Looms as Another Developer Warns of Trouble –Michelle Toh, CNNBusiness
Modern Land is the fourth firm to crack, asking investors to wait while they improve “liquidity and cash flow” Who’s next? [Read Here]

Americans Quitting Jobs at Historic Rate in August, While Hiring Falls –Lucia Mutikani, Reuters
Record resignations, combined with 10 million job vacancies, indicate a tight labor market that could push inflation higher… [Read Here]

October 15, 2020

Me2Good morning.
Earnings season is an unusual time.  A company can beat on earnings, but offer poor guidance, sending shares down.  Or the reverse can be true.
The other effect of earnings season is to leave the market somewhat unchanged overall, while many individual stocks make some big moves in either direction.  So far, this earnings season has been quiet on that front, as the pandemic has led to lower expectations.  But the combination of earnings season and the election could lead to some big swings, particularly in individual stocks.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Will Oil Markets Go Haywire Again? — by John Persinos
After successfully shoring up crude oil prices by curtailing production, the OPEC+ alliance has signaled its intention to reverse direction and ease production cuts.  This opening of the spigots is planned despite the severe recession, weak energy demand, and the resurgence around the world of the coronavirus.  Crude oil prices recently have stabilized, after a period this year of unprecedented volatility.  Now, OPEC+ is betting that economic growth in 2021 will be sufficient to boost energy demand and reduce inventories.
Are energy producers about to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?  The question should concern all investors, because the energy sector and financial markets are intertwined.  Another collapse in energy prices would weigh on the broader stock market, especially in light of still-excessive equity valuations.
Easing production curbs in January could encourage a fresh round of the usual cheating by cartel members.  As the Arabian proverb says: “If the camel once gets his nose in the tent, his body will soon follow.”

October 15, 2019

Dad?I can’t think of one thing that doesn’t come with an ongoing cost.  Whether it is belonging to the “Chess Club” where attendees set up the chairs and tables … the lifetime warranty on a jewelry purchase (‘just’ bring the item back to the store every six-months and we’ll clean it for free!) … (or) the stray dogs your son brings home that eat, and eat, and eat … only to find out they must get an annual check-up at the vet…

Newfoundland Date SquaresA friend gave me a big box of apples.  I was excited until I found out how many apples needed to be peeled, cut and cored to make apple-crumble.  It was actual okay because my wife was at my side throughout the process.  ‘Thing are not what they seem!’  Was the generosity of my friend … a curse or a blessing?  I bet his wife never wanted to see another apple brought-into the house from his backyard.

Had a fabulous Thanksgiving with our family!  Our Newfoundland Date Squares were particularly enjoyable after dinner!  I’ve included the picture above and the video recipe below!

Enjoy!  😉

IMG_0712
Come From Aways, Do You?

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