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10-OCTOBER 19-2023

NASDAQGood morning.  Tuesday’s retail sales data indicated that the U.S. consumer is alive and well.  That caused markets to initially fall, because good economic news means interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer.  Of course, any piece of data isn’t worth too much.  The overall trend of retail sales is slowing, and the U.S. consumer has now drawn down their excess savings from the pandemic.
Overall, this kind of data points to what we’ve seen in the markets this week – data points leading to knee-jerk reactions before being walked back.
Following Wednesday’s slide as interest rates once again moved higher, the week is setting up for a more sideways to slightly lower return on rising volatility, which can still leave markets poised for a strong year-end rally.  Investors can still look at companies taking a hit on earnings or interest rate fears this week, and traders still have some elevated volatility for trades.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

American Families Risk Falling Into A Doom Loop
American families face a confluence of financial challenges, including high inflation, escalating costs and mortgage rates that make it nearly impossible for young families to purchase a home… [Read Here]

JPMorgan CEO: “This Is The Most Dangerous Time In Decades”
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon kicked off bank earnings season on Friday with a stark warning about the perils facing the world today.  The war in Ukraine, along with the unprecedented attacks in Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas last weekend, may have… [Read Here]

October 19, 2022

just walk overGood morning.
By historical standards, the current bear market has only seen about 75 percent of the drop relative to the average.  That’s good… unless there’s more downside.  Chances are there will be.  The past few weeks has seen some strong rallies in stocks, but it’s also seen some signs of strain.
One area in particular is the credit market.  Big banks reported decent earnings overall, but a few are looking to deleverage and raise capital right now.  Credit Suisse (CS) is one of them, with the potential to raise nearly $2 billion (on its $12 billion market cap).  If we see Credit Suisse or a similarly-sized international bank get into trouble, we could see another downdraft in stocks… but also a central bank bailout which may signal that the end of the current rate hiking cycle is near.
The next few weeks are likely to see heightened volatility.  So traders should remain cautious.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

America Has Only 25 Days Of Diesel Supply Left
The US has just 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008, according to the Energy Information Administration.  The four-week rolling average of distillates supplied, a proxy for demand, rose to its highest seasonal level since 2007…[Read Here]

Senior Analyst Causes Panic After This Prediction About The World Financial System
With record high inflation and stock market volatility already spooking investors, the senior analyst Judy Shelton from the Independent Institute weighed in on the U.K.’s move to stabilize the gilt market and what it means…[Watch Here]

October 19, 2021

Business_15Good morning.
Bull markets end on euphoria, but not until they’ve gone on far longer than many expect.  That seems to be the case in the commodity markets right now.  While traders are still considering that the price of a barrel of oil may hit $100, some are starting to bet that will just be a stop along the way to $200 per barrel, which would be a new all-time high for the commodity.
And thanks to the recent uranium rally, a new fund that will hold physical uranium has been announced to take advantage of that move.  The announcement helped uranium stocks go even further.  We’re starting to enter the euphoric phase for some commodities, which may have a few more months ahead of it, before a big pullback.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Gold is an extremely stable investment that is not tied to the performance of any particular economy.
“Gold has been used as a form of currency and trade for centuries, and it is still used today as a global reserve currency.  This makes it an extremely stable investment that is not tied to the performance of any particular economy.  It’s less likely to fluctuate in value with respect to other investments.  And because it is a physical asset, gold is not subject to the same risks as stock or bond investments.”– Harry Turner  [Read More]

October 19, 2020

Now That You Have ItGood morning.
Corporate earnings may be mixed, but consumers are back.  Retail sales rose by 1.9 percent, which helped fuel a market rally.  However, that rally faded out on Friday afternoon, as ebullient shoppers mean that less stimulus may be needed.
That forward-looking notion, against the backdrop of a lackluster earnings season so far, indicates that the stock market can perform well, even as the overall economy continues to struggle.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

The Pandemic’s Financial Risks: Echoes of 1987? — By John Persinos
Today is a dubious anniversary: “Black Monday,” the market crash of October 19, 1987.  Thirty-three years ago, stock markets around the world collapsed.  The meltdown started in Hong Kong and spread west to Europe.  The United States was hit after other markets had already plunged.  The S&P 500 plummeted 20.5%, from 282.7 to 225.06.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 508 points to 1,738.74, a one-day decline of 22.61%.  At the time, Black Monday represented the single largest drop the U.S. stock market had ever experienced.
Program trading bears much of the blame for the crash.  Institutions use these programs as a hedge against market weakness.  Three decades ago, this complexity was new and little understood.  On Black Monday, as loss targets were reached, these programs automatically liquidated stocks.  Lower prices caused more liquidation.  The chain reaction accelerated.  Leading up to the crash, warning signs were abundant.  The economy was slowing.  International tensions were worsening.  Political unrest was growing in Europe.  The U.S. and China were at economic loggerheads.  Nuclear tensions were flaring between East and West.  Stocks were grossly overvalued.  The strong U.S. dollar was hurting U.S. exports.
The White House was dismantling financial rules designed to break a market collapse.  Passive algorithmic trading was spreading as a substitute for active stock picking.  Yikes!  Sound familiar?  It should.  I don’t think another 1987-type crash will occur anytime soon, but we’re probably facing a correction over the near term of at least 5% to 10%. Below, I examine current risks.  I also steer you toward an investing method that leverages these imbalances for profit.

October 19, 2019

Sometime it is necessary to dismiss one’s advice!  Often it is best to do so without injuring feelings or offending anyone!  This is not easy to do without some preparation … some advice.

More Tech Support Please

Some people are happy to give advice; they feel like they are contributing something helpful in their own little way.  But the problem starts when the recipient of the advice doesn’t follow it or has another idea.  The adviser might get offended because he will feel that his advice is not being valued.  Here’s how to dismiss someone’s advice without hurting his feelings.

  1. Show your appreciation.  Tell the person how much you appreciate his advice, and that you will give it some serious thought.  Even if you will not really follow his suggestion, the act of merely considering it is enough to show your respect.
  2. Reserve the advice for potential future use.  After a day or two, tell him how his ideas could be of great help or use, but you have also found that it is not suitable to your situation right now.  But since you think it’s highly beneficial, you will keep it in mind for potential use in the future.
  3. Build up the ego.  To build up his ego and make him feel that you respect his suggestions, ask for his advice on another subject; but this time, you tell him you’re asking his advice because you’re trying to help a friend or relative.

(No need to give any name.  If he insists, pick someone he doesn’t know.  This way, he won’t be able to track if his advice was actually followed.)

Asking may not be enough!  😉

Come From Aways, Do You?

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