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10-OCTOBER 20-2023

Legal PadGood morning.  Interest rates have had a wide range over the past five years.  They’ve had a low end of 0 percent.  Today, we’re at the high end with rates north of 5 percent at their highest level in mover 15 years.
Breaking down the total net borrowing, the past five years have seen households decline their total debt levels.  And non-financial corporations borrowed at ultra-low rates, but even then, total debt increased by less than 2 percent.  Instead, nearly all the total borrowing over the past five years has come from the government.
That’s likely why interest rates have been moving higher.  The sharp level of borrowing and the sheer size of government borrowing are now causing investors to see inflation as the main driver of yields.  Until this changes, markets will likely be under pressure, and even with a year end rally, stocks may have already seen their peak for 2023.  Investors and traders can be seasonally optimistic, but more cautious over the long term.

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IMF Tries To Calm Nerves, Silicon Bank Crash 2.0 Inbound?
The sharp rise in undeclared losses on banks’ capital reserves provoked warnings from the International Monetary Fund, which called on regulators to increase their oversight.  Since March of this year, bank reserves have plunged even deeper into the red, leading to… [Read Here]

October 20, 2022

Trick or Treat2Good morning.
While gas prices are well off their peak from earlier in the year, a number of factors are in store to create a nasty surprise next year.  The first is the latest production cut from OPEC+ members, which will reduce global oil production by millions of barrels per day.
Adding in the current sales from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the United States, and the US is on track to have its lowest stockpile of oil for emergencies since 1983.  And prices could move higher once those sales are over – which are expected right after next month’s midterm elections.
Energy prices have a huge impact on transportation and production costs throughout the economy.  So as long as those prices are structurally set to stay high, expect slower growth and more volatile markets.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

12 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Nearing Collapse
Things haven’t looked this bad for the U.S. economy since 2008.  We are in the midst of the worst inflation crisis in decades, the housing market has started to collapse, some of the largest companies in America have begun laying off workers…[Read Here]

New Report Reveals Americans Are Reaching Their Wits’ End
After back-to-back monthly gains, U.S. consumer confidence declined in October by more than expected as uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and persistent, high inflation continue to drag on Americans…[Read Here]

October 20, 2021

Holidays_15Good morning.
The stock market has a number of seasonal patterns to it.  While it’s well-known that stocks tend to rally into the end of the year, in what’s known as the “Santa Claus” rally, that rally tends to start earlier than many expect.  This year, the start date is likely the first day of November, less than two weeks away.
Why?  Because right now we’re in the midst of earnings season, when company insiders are locked out from buying or selling shares.  Companies are also in a lockout period for share buybacks.  And it’s those buybacks that have been some of the biggest drivers of returns for stocks engaging in them in prior years.  Now’s the time to look at companies with some of the largest share buybacks out there, and to get in ahead of the seasonal buyback window, which should allow shares to rally from here into the end of the year.

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October 20, 2020

Who Ass Are We Covering?Good morning.
Even though interest rates are at zero percent, the stock market still wants to see more stimulus — and soon.  After negotiations broke down on Monday for putting more money into the hands of Americans, stocks slid to lows of the day.
Add in the upcoming election as well as the ongoing earnings season, and it’s easy to see why the market is likely to be in for a volatile few weeks.  While many investors may not like volatility, it tends to be where traders get better returns.

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October 20, 2019

What’s Wrong With the World!  I can’t begin the list without thinking … Darren Hardy!

Sometimes we don’t have to look beyond the reflection in the mirror to begin this discussion…

Old can be new!  😉

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Come From Aways, Do You?

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