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10-OCTOBER 27-2023

Cargo pantsGood morning.  The stock market closed under its 200-day moving average on Wednesday for the first time since March 15.  History tends to show that bulls and bears fight out over the 200-day moving average for a period of days before the trend continues.
Seasonality and the post-earnings season stock buyback resumption point to a bullish outcome.  However, stocks may have one final flush before a year-end rally higher.  And markets will likely seem more fearful until an uptrend is in place.
Investors should continue to wait for great companies to go on sale.  Many stocks are holding up well here, or are already off their lows, such as utilities and consumer goods.  Traders still have plenty of options both long and short in the next few weeks.

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Shark Tank Star Warns “Only Millionaires Will Survive”
In a new video, Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary reveals the truth about what’s coming for Americans… [Read Here]

October 27, 2022

Business as usualGood morning.
We’re living in a topsy-turvy word.  In the real world, a company’s share price should rise as it continues to grow.  It should decline when it stops growing or gets into trouble.  Right now, many big-name companies are reporting earnings.  Some are faring well.  Others are having trouble with either a slowdown, or passing on inflation to consumers without losing too much business.
That’s resulted in a market focused on the overall picture.  And bad earnings is overall good news, as it speeds up the likelihood of a shift in monetary policy.
For now, traders should expect volatility, as markets will likely continue to post big moves in either direction until a policy change.  And the recent rally may stall out if companies continue to post poor earnings and lower guidance going forward.  That’s still a recipe for caution.  Continue to look for short-term downside trades here.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

12 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Nearing Collapse
Things haven’t looked this bad for the U.S. economy since 2008.  We are in the midst of the worst inflation crisis in decades, the housing market has started to collapse, some of the largest companies in America have begun laying off workers…[Read Here]

New Report Reveals Americans Are Reaching Their Wit’s End
After back-to-back monthly gains, U.S. consumer confidence declined in October by more than expected as uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and persistent, high inflation continue to drag on Americans…[Read Here]

October 27, 2021

Fiscal Year ProjectionsGood morning.
There’s a lot of paperwork and costs involved with buying a home.  That’s largely kept corporations from using them as an investment.  However, that changed following the housing crash when it became possible to buy foreclosed homes in bulk.
That trend has continued in the past year, with some companies buying and renting out homes, and others, like Zillow Group (Z), simply buying, fixing up, and flipping.  That increased investor demand has helped home prices rise substantially, up nearly 19 percent over the past year.
That’s good news for existing homeowners, but it does make it more difficult to afford housing in general.  Just as companies were slow to get into the space, extricating them before they buy up the market and turn the country into a nation of renters will also take time, effort, and energy.

Now here’s the rest of the news:

Inflation Is Here to Stay, Gold Is a Winner
“The Fed openly said it has a flexible approach to inflation, and it’ll let inflation run hot.  And that’s a risky decision because it is hard to get inflation under control once it starts running hot… And that leads to higher asset prices, in particular defensive assets like gold.” –John Deane [Read More]

October 27, 2020

DiversifyGood morning.
Market commentators have warned about pre-election volatility for months.  It’s finally here, with just a week to go until the voting stops (and, no doubt, the recounts and lawsuits start).  Oddly, the drop has occurred just as the polls started to show a tightening race between former Vice President Joe Biden and incumbent President Donald Trump.
Given how elections can result in substantial changes in tax policy and regulations, the fact that markets were fine with a potential “blue wave,”but are now having second thoughts, may be more out of fear of more Covid-19 lockdowns this winter rather than the election.

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October 27, 2019

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