Good morning.
After two negative quarters in a row, the economy, as measured by GDP, rose by 2.6 percent annualized in this quarter. However, behind the headlines, this may just prove a bit of window dressing ahead of the midterm elections.
For starters, the growth occurred entirely thanks to trade, as net exports increased. Meanwhile, private inventories shrank, as did personal income and wages. With inflation still running over 8 percent annualized, it’s clear that in real terms the economy is still struggling.
Markets are more interested in the rumour that the Fed may make its monetary policy pivot by the end of the year. This latest data point offers little more than the likelihood of more market volatility ahead, and the chance to profit on both the long and short side.
Now here’s the rest of the news:
Democrats Horrified Over Recession And Mass Layoffs
In July, we saw the seeds of the Democrats plan begin to take hold as several politicians took aim at Fed Chair Jerome Powell as poll numbers started to slide and the Midterms looked like being a disaster: They said it is important…[Read Here]
October 28, 2021
Good morning.
There’s a lot of economic data out there. No one single piece usually ends up portending the end of the world. Most economists and investors look for trends in the data. However, there’s one indicator that any investor should monitor to determine the economy’s health, as it tends to indicate a potential market correction as well.
That indicator is the yield curve. Simply a way of looking at the various returns across the T-bill and Treasury spectrum, if the curve is expanding, so is the economy. If it’s contracting, that’s a warning. If it inverts, like it did in late 2019, it’s a sign of impending trouble for the economy and market.
Currently, the curve has dropped to an 18-month low. It’s still positive, and could end up expanding again. But it’s a sign of growing concern in the market, likely that the Fed is letting the money printing going on a bit too long given rising inflation. It’s a warning sign, but likely one that won’t prevent a year-end market rally. Just consider it a warning to be a bit more cautious when 2022 kicks off.
Now here’s the rest of the news:
October 28, 2020
Good morning.
Following the market’s worst day in nearly two months, trading proved mixed yesterday. That’s no surprise, as this week is loaded with earnings reports. While there haven’t been too many surprises, there does remain a dichotomy in stocks. Tech companies can continue to show growth right now, while many more traditional companies continue to struggle.
Forget the much-touted “K-shaped” economic recovery between those with jobs and those without. In the stock market, it’s between companies that are able to adapt quickly to the times (and even profit from them) against those that can’t successfully compete.
Now here’s the rest of the news:
Don’t Be Complacent About the Market – by Scott Chan
Back in Economics class in school, the professor used to throw around a word a lot: cyclicality.
The word stuck in my mind to this day. It’s just not a term we use in everyday life. In fact, I have never used the word except when discussing economics and investing. But it’s important for investors. The dictionary defines cyclicality as: “The quality or state of something that occurs or moves in cycles.” For example, the ups and downs (growth and recession) of an economy is its cyclicality.
October 28, 2019
Happy Monday Morning!
Crackin’ the proverbial whip … here’s Darren.
Lots to be Thankful for this day, this week, this month, this year!
I’m just thankful I don’t have to eat pumpkin pie! 🙂
